Iran, a Threat to the Middle East and the World Economy

What does Iran Want?

What to expect for the near future?

Last week you read an emphasis on two points as imperatives for the accurate intelligence analysis of a country’s behavior. First, the analyst must have a historic context for the contemporary behavior. Second, that historic context includes the current “belief” system, the ideology of the country. The historic context and current ideology are paramount drivers for a critical additional factor: how the country perceives its national interests.

Simply stated, vital national interests are issues which bear on the survival of a nation and the goals the nation sets as an immutable part of the national belief system.

Culture, ideologies, and national interests evolve over time and changing circumstances.

Applying this template to Iran, we can understand the threat Iran poses to the US, the Middle East, and to the world.

Historically, ethnic Persians are one of the oldest intact cultural groups in the world today. The ‘glory days’ were the Persian Empires under various dynastic rulers from the sixth century B.C. to 330 B.C. When the last great empire fell to the armies of Alexander the Great, Persia never regained the power status and respect of the empires. However, that imperial history left the ethnic Persians with a sense of entitlement they are the rightful leaders of the Middle East.

Religion typically is a prominent factor in a national culture. Zoroastrianism, a monotheistic belief system and one of the world’s oldest religions, was the religion of ancient Persia. The Sunni sect of Islam became the main religion for Iran in 640 A.D. The Shia sect did not emerge as the dominant form of Islam until 1310 A.D. In 1979, a group of Shia radicals, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, overthrew the western oriented Pahlavi dynasty under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The Shia clerics established a radical theocratic government to rule Iran under Ayatollah Khomeini as the “Supreme Leader”. Khomeini dramatically evolved the culture and the national interests to recover the ‘glory days’, but now as Shia “glory days’. Ali Khamenei became the new supreme leader on the death of Khomeini in 1979 and continues to follow the radical beliefs of Khomeini.

Iran’s current national interests:

• Iran must be recognized as the natural hegemonic leader for the Middle East.
• Remove US influence and presence from the region.

These national interests have been stated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and from his base of support, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), other radical clerics, and Iran’s newly elected president, hardliner Ebrahim Raisi

To achieve these national interests and strategic goals Iran is:

• Actively pursuing development of nuclear weapons and long-range missile system to deliver the nuclear weapons.
• Iran is meddling in Middle Eastern countries to gain influence and strategic advantage. Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon are the main targets for Iran but the support of terrorist groups and even Sunni factions such as Hamas show the broad reach and commitment to dominate the region.
• Iran reminds the world that the IRGC can close the Strait of Hormuz at any time and shut down the daily flow of 20% of the world’s oil, instantly destabilizing the world economy.

The ‘hate’ rhetoric against the US and Israel is not mere propaganda but reflects the “belief system” of the Iranian leadership. This leadership has a two-part insurance policy to remain in power. The first part is legally set by the Iranian constitution which gives the Shia clerics authority to approve candidates for election and the authority to appoint a supreme leader. The second part of the insurance is the iron fist of the IRGC and internal Iranian security forces. These forces crushed 

Iranian dissent during student protests in 1999, election protests in 2009, economic protests in 2017 and 2019 were ended with violent repression using security forces, and then draconian punishments for the large numbers arrested during the protests. The new President, Ebrahim Raisi is accused of being a mass-murderer in the execution of more than 30,000 political prisoners in 1988. Raisi played a role in the 2019 murders of 1500 anti-regime protesters plus the arrest and torture of thousands.

Iran has faced economic and political sanctions for years, to negligible effect on their drive to become a nuclear power. Despite the 2015 nuclear weapon agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), intelligence estimates from Israel and other countries claim Iran is in a “breakout” status where Iran could detonate a nuclear device in four months to a year.

The 2015 agreement was a political sham and a strategic betrayal of US security interests, Israeli security, and the Middle East Sunni nations. The 2015 agreement kicked the can down the road, green-lighting an Iranian nuclear weapon for the near future. Now the Biden administration appears to be seeking a US domestic political advantage striving for a new agreement with Iran. Current reports indicate the new agreement will be worse than the terrible 2015 deal. Such a new agreement could release over $100 billion dollars in funds to Iran, ignore Iranian development of strategic long-range missiles, eliminate most current sanctions, and ignore Iran support of terrorism and interference in Middle East countries. Russia, a participant in the JCPOA, is making demands that a new nuclear deal must have provisions that protect Russia-Iran economic relationships. An escape valve for Russia from the current Ukraine War associated sanctions.

The future viewed through a Middle East lens is not promising. Iran is a radical theocratic state to be armed with nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems. The Shia belief system of the Iran government has the latitude to justify a nuclear arrack on religious grounds.
Iran has internal problems which could lead the radicals to engage in foreign adventures that could lead to war in the Middle East. The Iranian leadership is known for personal corruption and misallocating of finances for projects which have little benefit to the average Iranian striving for a better life. The population of Iran, estimated in the CIA World Factbook, is approximately 86 million, with the ethnic breakdown as: Persian 61%, Azeri 16%, Kurd 10%, Lur 6%, Baloch 2%, Arab 2%, Turkmen and Turkic tribes 2%, other 1%. The Kurds, Baloch, and Arab sectors are reluctant subjects of the radical clerical government. Though dominant in Iran, the Shias are only about 10% of the Muslims in the world. Russia, Turkey, and the Arabs are historic enemies of Iran and except for a common opposition to the US, have conflicting interests in the Middle East.

Intelligence analyst observations:

The Iranian weaknesses are not necessarily a comfort for the US. When a radical government faces weaknesses, that radical entity tends to take risks and these risks can lead to unintended consequences.

When dealing with a radical or a fanatic, listen to what your enemy says. Radical and fanatics tend to do what they say.

Do not enter into a negotiation if you are not willing to walk away from that negotiation if you can’t get what you want.

Miscalculations tend to override a well-made plan.

We have entered a time when many of the ‘rules’ used in intelligence analyses need to be carefully reexamined to ensure analyst biases, mine included (we all have biases), are not inducing errors into our efforts to understand the exact nature of the current threats to the US.

What to expect for the near future?

A dangerous and rough ride transiting the current strategic threats from Russia, Iran, China, and the radical Islamists.

Originally Published 13.03.2022. Re-published with Permission from www.GaryBowser.net.