Russian Situation

RUSSIA – June 2023
 

On Oct. 1, 1939, Winston Churchill described Russia as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma".
 

GBB Website readers are aware of my involvement with Russia/Soviet Union for over 60 years. This was involvement up close and personal.

Among the many topics from our daily chaos – Biden in the White House, inflation, Climate Change, kids can’t buy cigarettes but can decide on what sex they are and go for radical surgery, China is going to, do something - need I go on?. Then we have the new headline –

The Revolt in Russia – Leader of the Wagner Group and 25,000 Troops March on Moscow

all the experts quickly line-up to comment, hypocrisy disclaimer that group includes me.

One day later, Leader of the Wagner Group March on Moscow turns his 25,000 troops around and countermarches somewhere. And the 25,000 troop number now appears to have been maybe 2,000 troops. The overwhelming support of the Russian people for the ‘revolt’ was absent, is in non-existent. And, the Wagner Group leader, Prigozhin, has ignominiously fled to Belarus under some ‘Deal’ fabricated by Belarus leader Lukashenko,  a Putin stooge.

So what does all this mean?

It means we know a little but do not know a lot.
We know Putin is still in charge. This is the biggie.
We know this is a disaster for Prigozhin and the Wagner Force.
We know this will have an impact on the War in the Ukraine.

 

Unfortunately. There is a problem with what we know. We do not know what all these data mean. The endemic problem for the analyst is taking facts, uncertainties, and unknowns - and then making a “prediction” (estimate, conclusions, or what) of future events and trends.

I read a report from an economic analyst I respect where he began his discussion comparing economic analysts with weather forecasters. They both have a lot of data but that data exists in a complex and dynamic environment – so complex and constantly changing that the “analyses” are essentially educated guesses which are dignified with a probability to disguise the fact – the experts cannot be sure.

Like many other analysts including George Freidman, Geopolitical Futures, I am still digesting the available information. 

At this point, I think Putin is firmly in control of the political system, the Russian military, and the security services (intelligence and police). The Ukraine forces are much weaker than the mainstream press tells us.

Read more on this issue.