THE IRAN THING 2026 – Is Either Side Getting It Right?

GROK Generated Graphic Depicting Iran Thing

The US-Iran 2026 confrontation has become a conundrum of claims, fake news, facts, and
propaganda playing out in two vastly disparate cultures with global consequence. The crucial
element in this “mess” is the shallow understanding of the driving forces behind the US and
Iranian decision-making processes.

Iran, since 1979, has been driven by an extreme Islamic Shia cult. Few in the West have drawn
insights from the Iran-Iraq War, which lasted from September 22, 1980 August 20, 1988. This
religious conflict between Sunni Iraq and Shia Iran was savage with over a combined million
casualties and massive economic destruction to each country.

However, these dramatic facts do not give the necessary deeper perspective into the fanatical
thinking of the Iranian theocracy. For example, the IRGC recruited children in the age range of
11-14 to fight on the front – the IRGC gave each child a “plastic key”, telling the child it was
their “key to heaven”. Then the IRGC marched the children into minefields to clear the mines –
the children were blown to pieces so IRGC troops could move through the ‘cleared minefields’.
Most of the Iranian leadership, then and now, are “Twelvers”, Shia believers in the idea the
Twelfth Iman will return to establish Shia dominance over the world. In order for the Twelfth
Iman to return, the world must experience extreme chaos. This type religious imperative tends to exclude ‘making a deal’ with the US.

On the US side, we have dealt a tremendous blow to Iranian military capabilities, have pushed
the Iran economy into shambles and potential collapse. The Iranian people face extreme
inflation, a shortage of basic goods, and are under the guns of the Iranian security forces. Yet
there is no clear path to an Iranian capitulation. More bombing and more economic pressure will cause the Iranian people immense pain.

History shows the IRGC fanatics are willing to endure immense pain. History since 1945 shows
a US electorate unwillingness to do all needed to force an enemy to unconditionally surrender.

There are no moderates in the Iranian power structure. The top political leaders in what the
US has deemed the ‘reasonable faction’ are former senior IRGC officers, many of them veterans of the Iran-Iraq War.

So here we are, two sides with “off ramps” that have potentially bad political results (the US) or
consequences which are incompatible with Shia religious beliefs.

In order to “defeat” an enemy – you must cause the enemy ”to lose HOPE” in ‘winning’ the
conflict.

HOPE now for the US appears to be the economic collapse or Iran and an uprising of the Iranian people. HOPE for the Iranian power structure, the IRGC, is to outlast the current US
administration.

Yes, the above comments do not suggest a solution. However, all things come to an end. What do you think should be a strategy to end the existing mess?

 

**************************

 Essays written by Gary Bowser, a True Believer, sharing his thoughts regarding a wide range of topics based on his life and work experiences. Mr. Bowser is a retired military officer with over 50 years experience in the areas of intelligence and national security. He served two years in Special Operations during the Vietnam conflict. After that, he served overseas as a HUMINT Case Officer and directed a clandestine HUMINT organization as Operations Officer for over six years. Mr. Bowser also has extensive experience in the Washington D.C. arena as a DIA Directorate of Estimates Branch Chief.

You'll find more information about Gary Bowser and his books at www.garybowser.net.

 

BEYOND ESPIONAGE STORIES TO ACTUAL ESPIONAGE PRACTICES

 

If you enjoy books and movies about espionage, do you ever think beyond the ‘thriller and suspense’ side to how are the intelligence actions actually accomplished?

The “world of smoke and mirrors” always has spontaneous dimensions – uncertainties, often with deadly consequences.

The reality of the “world of smoke and mirrors” is that intelligence operations and the lives of spies have a tremendous amount of conceptual preparation, planning, training, discipline and choreography going on before and during the actual operation.

Deception is a key pillar in the foundation of intelligence. Deception has been an integral part of warfare and intelligence since the dawn of time. Double agents are a part of deception from the Garden of Eden and continue so now.

Check the GaryBowserBooks website in early September for a special announcement about how you can delve into “deception and double agents”.

 

**************************

 Essays written by Gary Bowser, a True Believer, sharing his thoughts regarding a wide range of topics based on his life and work experiences. Mr. Bowser is a retired military officer with over 50 years experience in the areas of intelligence and national security. He served two years in Special Operations during the Vietnam conflict. After that, he served overseas as a HUMINT Case Officer and directed a clandestine HUMINT organization as Operations Officer for over six years. Mr. Bowser also has extensive experience in the Washington D.C. arena as a DIA Directorate of Estimates Branch Chief.

You'll find more information about Gary Bowser and his books at www.garybowser.net.

 

We are pleased to announce the audio book for LIES ARE TRUTH is now available on Amazon, Audible, and Barnes & Noble. Check with your favorite audio book resource! Let us know where you downloaded your copy!

DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE NOVEMBER 2025 NSS IS?

You should know because NSS stands for National Security Strategy. The 2025 NSS discusses profound policy changes for the US approach to national security from November 2025 forward.

The National Security Act of 1947 set the basis for our military and intelligence community organizations. During the Cold War this was followed by 19 formal NSSs and a plethora of informal statements on specific security policies.  All these, until now, were consistent with a Cold War/NATO mindset despite evolving threats, such as the global Islamist terrorist networks.

This all changed officially in November 2025.

Things you should know about the 2025 NSS:

•  The 2025 NSS is a political document that addresses national security priorities
•  The 2025 NSS is the first major step away from the ideological focus on the “worldwide communist threat” of the Cold War.
•   The European members of NATO need to ‘step-up’ and bear the responsibilities to defend Europe.
•   The US and China need to establish a new relationship that recognizes mutual economic and strategic realities. This also implies the decline of Russia from a ‘superpower’ to a nation with nuclear weapons.
•  The US now has our priority security interest in the Western Hemisphere

The November 2025 NSS is 33 pages long with most being political versus policy changes and clarifications. Even so, I recommend you take a look at this document. If you do not want to read the full document, take a look at pages 1-2, 15-18, and page 27.

2025 National Security Strategy

 

**************************

 Essays written by Gary Bowser, a True Believer, sharing his thoughts regarding a wide range of topics based on his life and work experiences. Mr. Bowser is a retired military officer with over 50 years experience in the areas of intelligence and national security. He served two years in Special Operations during the Vietnam conflict. After that, he served overseas as a HUMINT Case Officer and directed a clandestine HUMINT organization as Operations Officer for over six years. Mr. Bowser also has extensive experience in the Washington D.C. arena as a DIA Directorate of Estimates Branch Chief.

You'll find more information about Gary Bowser and his books at www.garybowser.net.

 

SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT AI

 There is a ‘diversity’ of views about AI ranging from: “AI will destroy mankind” to “AI is the great hope for future progress of humanity”.

My view is, AI is ‘hype without boundaries’.

What is the definition of AI? There is no single agreed objective definition of AI. I assert, if you cannot define something, you do not understand it!

What is AI then? This question has a simple answer given the above two thoughts.

AI is “software”. It is code written by human coders. All software codes include the biases of the individual coders. These biases are wide ranging from political, scientific, intellectual, emotional, religious; that is, the biases reflect the range of coders’ thinking.

AI is a complex software code, but just a code which uses rules and algorithms to guide ‘a process’.

AI does not and cannot “think”. AI merely follows the respective AI code.

There is no such thing as a “perfect software code”, AI or any code. Among other things, the term ‘perfect’ is an unrealistic subjective abstraction. All AI will have various types of flaws.

AI has promise for certain well defined tasks and, at the same time, presents dangers in many areas for misinformation, crime, and, in particular, ‘unintended consequences’. Perhaps the greatest danger will be  an “AI reality” that cannot be distinguished from “objective reality”.

The ‘Intelligence business’, collection and analysis, will find AI a monumental challenge as an ‘AI reality’ could make deception profoundly difficult to discern.

AI competition, with a myriad of forms of AI codes, is worldwide involving governments, private companies, and sinister entities including international and local criminal groups, ISIS, China, Russia, and North Korea as a few examples.

Hype eventually evolves to conform with ‘objective reality’ and the roles of AI, good, bad, and ugly, will become clear – sooner than later.

 

**************************

 

Essays written by Gary Bowser, a True Believer, sharing his thoughts regarding a wide range of topics based on his life and work experiences. Mr. Bowser is a retired military officer with over 50 years experience in the areas of intelligence and national security. He served two years in Special Operations during the Vietnam conflict. After that, he served overseas as a HUMINT Case Officer and directed a clandestine HUMINT organization as Operations Officer for over six years. Mr. Bowser also has extensive experience in the Washington D.C. arena as a DIA Directorate of Estimates Branch Chief.

You'll find more information about Gary Bowser and his books at www.garybowser.net.

 

We Love You Old Glory!

 

14 June 2025 (President’s Trump’s birthday; the 250th Birthday of the US Army; a military parade in Washington DC)

And as a friend reminded me – National Flag Day

National Flag Day happens each year on June 14 to honor Old Glory and commemorate the adoption of the United States flag on June 14, 1777.

Old Glory is the most visible symbol for our country and our culture. There are many symbols that are part of this great nation: The Constitution; The Declaration of Independence; national buildings such as the Capital, Lincoln Memorial, Arlington Cemetery, and so on.

But, our flag is celebrated almost continuously at sports events, military funerals, public events – it is cheered, saluted, and solemnly revered.

Why is this important? For thousands of years, flags have been part of every significant culture in the history of the world. Those flags gave each of those cultures a rally point for their shared values, sense of a cohesive society, and unity of beliefs which help their society endure for generations.

I expect every one of you reading this comment respects and honors Old Glory – and many of you proudly fly our Old Glory at your home to announce I love America and love this Flag.

If anyone reading this disagrees with honoring our national symbol, that is your right. That is another symbol of our great country – freedom of speech. But - burning this revered symbol is not freedom of speech – burning our flag is called disrespect and desecration - as a citizen and veteran I assert – burning our flag should be a crime.

Celebrate tomorrow with other patriots – We love you Old Glory! 

 

**************************

 

Essays written by Gary Bowser, a True Believer, sharing his thoughts regarding a wide range of topics based on his life and work experiences. Mr. Bowser is a retired military officer with over 50 years experience in the areas of intelligence and national security. He served two years in Special Operations during the Vietnam conflict. After that, he served overseas as a HUMINT Case Officer and directed a clandestine HUMINT organization as Operations Officer for over six years. Mr. Bowser also has extensive experience in the Washington D.C. arena as a DIA Directorate of Estimates Branch Chief.

You'll find more information about Gary Bowser and his books at www.garybowser.net.

 

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence analysis is the bedrock of national security. These security analyses are challenging because the collected intelligence data is never complete, contains ambiguities, often is erroneous as an intentional deception, or the various disparate pieces form a misleading direction for the analyst.

We talked about biases in intelligence analyses and the fact the intelligence analyst must understand that biases are normal and an unavoidable part of human nature. The intelligence analyst must recognize the various biases and ensure that these prejudices do not inhibit an objective analysis of an intelligence threat.

World War II offers great examples how information was manipulated to lead an enemy to draw the wrong conclusions – these wrong conclusions creating major vulnerabilities for that enemy.

There is a jargon term in the intelligence analysis community which combines many of the worst practices by analysts – “The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall Syndrome”. “The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall” trap is a self-inflected wound based on trying to please political masters, pushing for bigger defense budgets, and laziness to avoid the heavy lifting to get past biases.

“The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall Syndrome” drives the analyst to portray the enemy with capabilities that in fact exceed the reality of the enemy threat.

I argue that the current threats to the USA from Russia and China are classic perversions of “The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall Syndrome”. The current threats to the USA from Russia and China are real and serious – but the threats from both countries are not on the order you hear in the various media. The Russia nuclear arsenal is a grave strategic threat. Our strategic nuclear forces far outclass the Russian – and why would Russia risk nuclear annihilation for a few more square miles of Ukraine. Think about the facts – Russia has been trying to conquer the Ukraine for over three years – and failed miserably with butcher’s bill of some 900,000 dead Russian soldiers for minor territorial gains. China has so many problems they offer little or no threat to mainland US and, in my view, could not conduct an effective amphibious assault on Taiwan.

I expect many of you may disagree with my assertions and analysis. If so let me know. I am planning follow-up comments regarding the Ukraine War and President Trump’s understanding of the existing weaknesses of Russia and the Ukraine which will lead to a ceasefire and peace. After that, we can talk about the Chinese fortune cookie threat.

**************************

 

Essays written by Gary Bowser, a True Believer, sharing his thoughts regarding a wide range of topics based on his life and work experiences. Mr. Bowser is a retired military officer with over 50 years experience in the areas of intelligence and national security. He served two years in Special Operations during the Vietnam conflict. After that, he served overseas as a HUMINT Case Officer and directed a clandestine HUMINT organization as Operations Officer for over six years. Mr. Bowser also has extensive experience in the Washington D.C. arena as a DIA Directorate of Estimates Branch Chief.

You'll find more information about Gary Bowser and his books at www.garybowser.net.