Deception is the DNA of Intelligence -- Deception Can Save Lives and Win Wars

 

Have you ever thrown a surprise party for someone? Have you ever bluffed playing cards? Welcome to the ranks of intelligence deceivers.

The Trojan Horse legend survives to this day as a great deception operation. Whether the Trojan Horse story is true, a myth, or a metaphor, the story is fascinating. The Thought for this week deals with the greatest deception operation in history, Operation Bodyguard in WWII. One of the most fascinating aspects of the Bodyguard Operation was, how did the Allies keep this massive deception operation a secret? Over the next weeks I plan to discuss the various parts of Bodyguard with you alternating with other topics which you may suggest and the ongoing exigent events in world affairs.

As WWII progressed, the Germans knew an invasion was coming from the west and the Allies were aware they would face a stalwart set of Nazi defenses. The probability of success for the Allied invasion was problematic. Geography set the conventional wisdom for the location of the invasion beaches and the cyclical weather patterns limited the timing windows for a large-scale invasion. The Pas de Calais was the obvious geographic target for the invading forces setting sail from England. Late Spring and early summer presented the only reasonable times for a seaborne assault. Hitler and the German High command were initially convinced Pas de Calais would be the targeted beaches for an allied invasion.

To thwart any invasion from the west, the Germans built a potent line of fortifications and defense installations that stretched over 1,670 miles from Scandinavia to the French-Spanish border; the Germans called it the Atlantic Wall. The Atlantic Wall was three years in construction and took a monumental amount of German resources away from the desperate fighting on the Eastern front. These defenses were integrated to present a comprehensive in-depth killing zone for any invading force.

The defense system began beyond the beaches with mine fields and undersea obstacles which could impale landing craft. The beaches were carefully fit with barbed wire and minefields which would channel landing troops into kill zones covered by artillery, mortars, and machine guns, firepower which was pre-registered for accuracy on the kill zones. The next defense barrier behind the beaches was an array of mutually supporting bunkers and fortifications which could effectively redirect and concentrate fire on specific landing force targets.

The integration could be viewed as a defense anvil and a defense hammer. The anvil was the network of fixed defenses. The hammer was German tank and mechanized infantry units in reserve to deliver a coup de gras with a smashing counterattack after the landing troops had been decimated by smashing against the anvil.

However, there was a vulnerability in the German defense plan. The Germans did not have enough combat units to have the reserves in-depth along the length of the Atlanta Wall. Many of the experienced and combat-hardened panzer (tank) and mechanized units available for the Atlantic Wall reserve were sent to western France to refit and rest before returning to fight the Red Army on the Eastern Front. Therefore, the German High Command had the critical decision how to deploy the limited number of experienced combat troops for the Atlantic Wall reserve. The Germans needed accurate intelligence; what location did the Allies chose for landing the invasion force and when did the Allies plan to launch the invasion?

The Allies’ problem was even more daunting than the German challenge. The Allies did not have a sufficient number of ships and landing craft to launch two simultaneous invasions, Normandy and Pas de Calais. The Allies did not have adequate troop numbers to fight on more than one invasion front. The troops would have to attack across the beaches in sequential waves facing the lethal Atlantic Wall defenses. If the Germans could bring their panzer and mechanized units quickly to counterattack the Allied attempt to establish a beachhead, the Allied forces would be destroyed on the beaches and the invasion would fail. A failed invasion would extend the war and result in hundreds of thousands of additional casualties in the future. Finally, the invasion plan, Operation Overlord, was the largest and riskiest amphibious assault in the history of warfare. Logistically supporting the landing force during and after the landing was a potential Achilles Heel beyond the challenge of establishing the initial beachhead.

The mirror image problem for the Allies to the German need to know the where and when was to not just deny the Germans the knowledge of ‘where and when’ – but to make the Germans believe a false’ where and when’. The massive invasion plan required a massive deception plan to mislead and misdirect the German High command. Operation Bodyguard was the deception component of Operation Overlord.

Bodyguard had to be comprehensive, integrated, and had no room for errors. One compromise in the strategic deception would lead to an unraveling of the overall invasion plan with catastrophic consequences. Rounding out the high probability of compromise was the reality the Allies could not simply hide the 175,000 men preparing to assault the Nazis, the 5000+ ships needed to execute the invasion of Europe, 10,000 aircraft, and the airborne force of over 13,000 paratroopers. One German spy gaining information on the invasion, one German successful aerial reconnaissance, one German successful intercept of Allied communications could doom Overlord. The deception operation had to be credible in every resect and present no loose ends for the Germans to detect and exploit. Success hinged on the effectiveness of Operation Bodyguard.

Operation Bodyguard was an amalgam of moving parts consistent with the complexity of the Overlord plan. The major Bodyguard component operations were Fortitude North, Fortitude South, Twenty Committee (aka Double Cross), Graffham, and Royal Flush.

Deception in the purest sense is not just having the enemy accept the misinformation but for the enemy to embrace the deception as “objective truth” and then act on their belief in the “objective truth” – and in the world of smoke and mirrors, “objective truth” can be pure lies.

In future installments of the Thought for the Week, we will examine how successful Bodyguard was and the reasons for that success.

 

Originally Published 06.05.2022. Re-published with Permission from www.GaryBowser.net.

Russian Situation

RUSSIA – June 2023
 

On Oct. 1, 1939, Winston Churchill described Russia as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma".
 

GBB Website readers are aware of my involvement with Russia/Soviet Union for over 60 years. This was involvement up close and personal.

Among the many topics from our daily chaos – Biden in the White House, inflation, Climate Change, kids can’t buy cigarettes but can decide on what sex they are and go for radical surgery, China is going to, do something - need I go on?. Then we have the new headline –

The Revolt in Russia – Leader of the Wagner Group and 25,000 Troops March on Moscow

all the experts quickly line-up to comment, hypocrisy disclaimer that group includes me.

One day later, Leader of the Wagner Group March on Moscow turns his 25,000 troops around and countermarches somewhere. And the 25,000 troop number now appears to have been maybe 2,000 troops. The overwhelming support of the Russian people for the ‘revolt’ was absent, is in non-existent. And, the Wagner Group leader, Prigozhin, has ignominiously fled to Belarus under some ‘Deal’ fabricated by Belarus leader Lukashenko,  a Putin stooge.

So what does all this mean?

It means we know a little but do not know a lot.
We know Putin is still in charge. This is the biggie.
We know this is a disaster for Prigozhin and the Wagner Force.
We know this will have an impact on the War in the Ukraine.

 

Unfortunately. There is a problem with what we know. We do not know what all these data mean. The endemic problem for the analyst is taking facts, uncertainties, and unknowns - and then making a “prediction” (estimate, conclusions, or what) of future events and trends.

I read a report from an economic analyst I respect where he began his discussion comparing economic analysts with weather forecasters. They both have a lot of data but that data exists in a complex and dynamic environment – so complex and constantly changing that the “analyses” are essentially educated guesses which are dignified with a probability to disguise the fact – the experts cannot be sure.

Like many other analysts including George Freidman, Geopolitical Futures, I am still digesting the available information. 

At this point, I think Putin is firmly in control of the political system, the Russian military, and the security services (intelligence and police). The Ukraine forces are much weaker than the mainstream press tells us.

Read more on this issue.

Iran, a Threat to the Middle East and the World Economy

What does Iran Want?

What to expect for the near future?

Last week you read an emphasis on two points as imperatives for the accurate intelligence analysis of a country’s behavior. First, the analyst must have a historic context for the contemporary behavior. Second, that historic context includes the current “belief” system, the ideology of the country. The historic context and current ideology are paramount drivers for a critical additional factor: how the country perceives its national interests.

Simply stated, vital national interests are issues which bear on the survival of a nation and the goals the nation sets as an immutable part of the national belief system.

Culture, ideologies, and national interests evolve over time and changing circumstances.

Applying this template to Iran, we can understand the threat Iran poses to the US, the Middle East, and to the world.

Historically, ethnic Persians are one of the oldest intact cultural groups in the world today. The ‘glory days’ were the Persian Empires under various dynastic rulers from the sixth century B.C. to 330 B.C. When the last great empire fell to the armies of Alexander the Great, Persia never regained the power status and respect of the empires. However, that imperial history left the ethnic Persians with a sense of entitlement they are the rightful leaders of the Middle East.

Religion typically is a prominent factor in a national culture. Zoroastrianism, a monotheistic belief system and one of the world’s oldest religions, was the religion of ancient Persia. The Sunni sect of Islam became the main religion for Iran in 640 A.D. The Shia sect did not emerge as the dominant form of Islam until 1310 A.D. In 1979, a group of Shia radicals, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, overthrew the western oriented Pahlavi dynasty under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The Shia clerics established a radical theocratic government to rule Iran under Ayatollah Khomeini as the “Supreme Leader”. Khomeini dramatically evolved the culture and the national interests to recover the ‘glory days’, but now as Shia “glory days’. Ali Khamenei became the new supreme leader on the death of Khomeini in 1979 and continues to follow the radical beliefs of Khomeini.

Iran’s current national interests:

• Iran must be recognized as the natural hegemonic leader for the Middle East.
• Remove US influence and presence from the region.

These national interests have been stated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and from his base of support, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), other radical clerics, and Iran’s newly elected president, hardliner Ebrahim Raisi

To achieve these national interests and strategic goals Iran is:

• Actively pursuing development of nuclear weapons and long-range missile system to deliver the nuclear weapons.
• Iran is meddling in Middle Eastern countries to gain influence and strategic advantage. Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon are the main targets for Iran but the support of terrorist groups and even Sunni factions such as Hamas show the broad reach and commitment to dominate the region.
• Iran reminds the world that the IRGC can close the Strait of Hormuz at any time and shut down the daily flow of 20% of the world’s oil, instantly destabilizing the world economy.

The ‘hate’ rhetoric against the US and Israel is not mere propaganda but reflects the “belief system” of the Iranian leadership. This leadership has a two-part insurance policy to remain in power. The first part is legally set by the Iranian constitution which gives the Shia clerics authority to approve candidates for election and the authority to appoint a supreme leader. The second part of the insurance is the iron fist of the IRGC and internal Iranian security forces. These forces crushed 

Iranian dissent during student protests in 1999, election protests in 2009, economic protests in 2017 and 2019 were ended with violent repression using security forces, and then draconian punishments for the large numbers arrested during the protests. The new President, Ebrahim Raisi is accused of being a mass-murderer in the execution of more than 30,000 political prisoners in 1988. Raisi played a role in the 2019 murders of 1500 anti-regime protesters plus the arrest and torture of thousands.

Iran has faced economic and political sanctions for years, to negligible effect on their drive to become a nuclear power. Despite the 2015 nuclear weapon agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), intelligence estimates from Israel and other countries claim Iran is in a “breakout” status where Iran could detonate a nuclear device in four months to a year.

The 2015 agreement was a political sham and a strategic betrayal of US security interests, Israeli security, and the Middle East Sunni nations. The 2015 agreement kicked the can down the road, green-lighting an Iranian nuclear weapon for the near future. Now the Biden administration appears to be seeking a US domestic political advantage striving for a new agreement with Iran. Current reports indicate the new agreement will be worse than the terrible 2015 deal. Such a new agreement could release over $100 billion dollars in funds to Iran, ignore Iranian development of strategic long-range missiles, eliminate most current sanctions, and ignore Iran support of terrorism and interference in Middle East countries. Russia, a participant in the JCPOA, is making demands that a new nuclear deal must have provisions that protect Russia-Iran economic relationships. An escape valve for Russia from the current Ukraine War associated sanctions.

The future viewed through a Middle East lens is not promising. Iran is a radical theocratic state to be armed with nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems. The Shia belief system of the Iran government has the latitude to justify a nuclear arrack on religious grounds.
Iran has internal problems which could lead the radicals to engage in foreign adventures that could lead to war in the Middle East. The Iranian leadership is known for personal corruption and misallocating of finances for projects which have little benefit to the average Iranian striving for a better life. The population of Iran, estimated in the CIA World Factbook, is approximately 86 million, with the ethnic breakdown as: Persian 61%, Azeri 16%, Kurd 10%, Lur 6%, Baloch 2%, Arab 2%, Turkmen and Turkic tribes 2%, other 1%. The Kurds, Baloch, and Arab sectors are reluctant subjects of the radical clerical government. Though dominant in Iran, the Shias are only about 10% of the Muslims in the world. Russia, Turkey, and the Arabs are historic enemies of Iran and except for a common opposition to the US, have conflicting interests in the Middle East.

Intelligence analyst observations:

The Iranian weaknesses are not necessarily a comfort for the US. When a radical government faces weaknesses, that radical entity tends to take risks and these risks can lead to unintended consequences.

When dealing with a radical or a fanatic, listen to what your enemy says. Radical and fanatics tend to do what they say.

Do not enter into a negotiation if you are not willing to walk away from that negotiation if you can’t get what you want.

Miscalculations tend to override a well-made plan.

We have entered a time when many of the ‘rules’ used in intelligence analyses need to be carefully reexamined to ensure analyst biases, mine included (we all have biases), are not inducing errors into our efforts to understand the exact nature of the current threats to the US.

What to expect for the near future?

A dangerous and rough ride transiting the current strategic threats from Russia, Iran, China, and the radical Islamists.

Originally Published 13.03.2022. Re-published with Permission from www.GaryBowser.net.

 

Ukraine, Why, Why Now, What Next

Almost all the Russia “experts” got it wrong about the scale of the invasion and wrong that the Russians would make an incursion beyond the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk which were already under de facto Russian control. The term “expert” does not carry the same weight today as before, I will avoid that label and simply state, I have over sixty years experience dealing with Russia and Russians as an intelligence officer, an entrepreneur running an international high-tech company in Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 (employed 100+ top notch Russian scientists), and as an academic teaching intelligence analysis at Henley-Putnam University.

Most analysts do understand the “Why” for the invasion. Countries and societies are prisoners of their history. History cannot repeat, but history will mimic. The “Why” for the 2022 Russian invasion of the Ukraine extends back in history, predating the Soviet Union by almost 1000 years. During that millennia, Russia suffered major invasions by the Byzantine Empire, France, Germany, Lithuania, Japan, Mongols, Persia, Poland, Ottoman Empire, Turkey, Sweden, the Vikings, among others, including the US and United Kingdom interfering in the 1917-1923 Russian civil war. The Cold War placed the US and the Soviet Union with the dire threat of annihilating each other in a strategic nuclear weapon exchange (known as Mutual Assured Destruction). In addition, from the Russian view, NATO poses a new military threat to Russia.

Russia earned their paranoia after hundreds of years of foreign invasions. Thus, one strategic imperative for Russia was a buffer zone which gave the Russians strategic depth from incursions from the west. The Warsaw Pact, the Russian counter to NATO, gave the Kremlin that strategic buffer. During the Cold War, the Russians ruthlessly put down any efforts by the Warsaw Pact states who deviated from perceived Russian interests. This included Russian military actions in East Germany (1953), the invasions of Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968), and suppressing dissent in the Baltic states throughout the Cold War.

WHY INVADE NOW? Russia views the Ukraine as part of a historic buffer protecting the core of Russian territory from enemies attacking from the west. This buffer concept is an ingrained security belief that drives Russian strategic thought. The key word is ‘belief’. We believe Russia poses a threat to the US and Europe. Russia believes the US and NATO are threats to Russia. Beliefs do not have to be rational, a challenge for analysts attempting to understand a political or military situation. Russia ‘believed the Ukraine was moving toward joining NATO and the EU. Russia would be more exposed and vulnerable. In the current Ukraine ‘situation’ there are ample precedents about Russian ‘strategic beliefs’ and the extent Russia would go to ensure they maximize the territorial security of Russia.

Russia experienced a weak reaction from the west when Russia moved against Georgia in 2008, carving out the self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as Russian clients. A similar move into the Crimea and the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014 indicated the west would talk but not risk direct military action to defend the integrity of the Ukraine. Russia may have fooled President Biden’s security team. As masters of deception, the Russians may have decided to leak information that Russia would invade the Ukraine. Russia moved troops up to the Ukraine borders and began military exercises which looked very similar to the deception used prior to the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. The US dutifully publicly announced we had the ‘intelligence’ that Russia was about to invade the Ukraine. Then the US publicly told Russia that no US troops would be deployed into the Ukraine for combat operations to protect the Ukraine. Russia now had the information they wanted on US intentions. Game on, launch the invasion.

 

WHAT NEXT: A US military saying goes – when the shooting starts the original plan goes out the window. Clausewitz stated this in a more elegant manner as, “the fog of war’. The Clausewitz allusion to the uncertainties inherent in every conflict. While the run-up to the invasion was masterful, the actual execution was poor in the sense the Russians miscalculated several factors. It appears the Russians expected a quick victory, 2-4 days, and wanted to minimize civilian casualties. The initial bombardment by rockets, artillery, and aircraft fell far short of the intensity needed for a shock and awe blitzkrieg assault. The initial Russian invasion force was only about one-third of the troops deployed on the Ukraine borders. The Ukraine military resisted more effectively than expected. Russia had to bring in reinforcements. Furthermore, Russia faces a serious set of sanctions which are damaging the Russian economy.

On the military side, Russia has the combat capability to conquer the Ukraine. However, Russia does not want to be an occupying power against a hostile population.

Now we come back to the “fog of war”. It is relatively easy to give context to a strategic event as done above, however, going into the forecast, uncertainty reigns supreme. With that in mind, here are thoughts about the future impacts of the Russian invasion.

The great uncertainty is how “wise” the political elites will be on each side.

Russia is in a position where it is virtually impossible to back away from the aggressive stance they have taken. The political goal is likely to be installing a regime in Kiev which is friendly to Russian interests.

How much economic punishment does the US and Europe plan to inflict on Russia, and, for how long? The economic blowback will negatively impact the US and world economies as well as Russia. Russia and the Ukraine are major exporters of food (corn, wheat, barley, rye, eggs), energy (oil, natural gas), ammonia for fertilizer production, metals (copper, nickel, titanium, aluminum, neon (essential microchip manufacturing), and specialized chemicals. Worldwide inflation is increasing and the potential looms to cause a global economic depression in the near term. The western political elites must watch the break point where the sanctions hurt the west as much or more than they hurt Russia.

The big geostrategic winner in a drawn out new Cold War will be China.

The greatest risk to the US is a miscalculation that results in an uncontrolled escalation to the threshold of nuclear war. The US and Russia each have the nuclear weapon capabilities to totally destroy each other. Open source literature gives Russia a nuclear weapon inventory on the order of 4477 to 6257 weapons; the same literature gives the US a nuclear weapon inventory of 3800 to 5428 weapons. International treaty limitations state 1550 -1800 weapons may be deployed at one time by each nation. Even the smaller number of treaty-allowed deployed weapons by each nation is sufficient for Russia to obliterate the US as a society and nation and the US to annihilate Russia as a society and nation. This catastrophic mutual destruction could be done in about one hour’s time from the first missile launches.

Neither the US nor Russia has an effective anti-missile defense against intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The problem of miscalculation by the political leadership of Russia or the US is our greatest risk.

Originally Published 07.03.2022. Re-published with Permission from www.GaryBowser.net.

2022 AFIO Headlines

Gary Bowser is a member of the AFIO (Association of Former Intelligence Officers). The AFIO publishes a weekly newsletter for its member.  The following information was available in the AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #01-22 – 4 January 2022:

 US Pentagon has an army of clandestine operatives that ‘dwarfs the CIA’.  

The US Department of Defense maintains a worldwide “secret army” of over 60,000 operatives, many of whom have fake identities and manufactured backgrounds, according to a report from Newsweek’s investigative journalist, William Arkin. Arkin claimed that the Pentagon force is “more than ten times the size” of the clandestine wing of the CIA, and is allegedly part of a wider US government effort known as “signature reduction”. The scheme provides undercover government operatives the ability to operate domestically and around the world without the fear of having their links to spy agencies or the military discovered by online sleuths.

Operation Peregrine author – hmm – think about Operation Peregrine and what you will see in the sequel)

 

Czechs expelled Russian spies, accusing them of blowing up a munitions depot. 

The Czech Republic unceremoniously expelled a number of Russian diplomats in April, accusing Kremlin spies of being behind a mysterious explosion that leveled a munitions depot in 2014. According to Prague, a team of Russian operatives, posing as Tajiks and Moldovans, blew up a facility belonging to the Military Technical Institute of the Czech Ministry of Defense, killing two security guards and prompting hundreds of evacuations. The Russian operatives allegedly belonged to Unit 29155, a Russian elite spy outfit, whose goal is to subvert European political and economic systems and processes. Several diplomatic tit-for-tat expulsions followed from a number of European nations.

 

Iranian intelligence networks in Europe were decimated following failed operation. 

Four Iranian spies were tried in Belgium in February, after unsuccessfully trying to bomb an annual conference of Iranian expatriate dissidents. Conference attendees included the then-US President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, who addressed the meeting. Stephen Harper, Canada’s former prime minister, also spoke at the conference. Even worse for Iran, a “green notebook” found in the car of one of the spies, allegedly contained “289 places across 11 European countries”, where Assadi is thought to have met with Iranian spies operating throughout Europe.

 Published originally 05.01.21.  Re-published with permission from www.garybowser.net

 

 

Spies and People, a Continuum Throughout History

 

 

The Bible records a spy operation in Jericho some 3500 years ago. The prostitute Rahab works with Israeli spies giving information, using tradecraft, and gets a payoff for her services. 

Little has changed in HUMINT over the intervening centuries, humans go on spying every day.

In 2017, Chinese intelligence agents coerced a GE Aviation engineer to become a spy. The recruited agent passed information about US military and commercial aircraft to the Communist Chinese intelligence service.

2021, Jonathan Toebbe and his wife Diana conspired to sell classified US nuclear attack sub data to a foreign power.

We could list thousands of examples since Rahab; what is your favorite? The point is, despite great advances in technical means for spying, HUMINT still gets it done, case officers and spies will be keystones in the world of smoke and mirrors.

First Published 16.11.2021 Re-printed from www.garybowser.net by permission.