When I began the website initiative, Thought for the Week, I intended to avoid the trap of falling into a purely political discussion. This site is about intelligence. My books are telling about intelligence in the real world. (I intend to talk more next month about the ‘why’ I began a series of books which I refer to as the True Believer series.) I realized that I was out of step with two of the greatest thinkers in history who wrote about war, General Karl von Clausewitz and General Sun Tzu.
The reality is – Intelligence is part of the DNA of politics and Intelligence is the essence of success in war.
Clausewitz, “war is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out of the same by other means,” (On War)
“By the word “information” we denote all the knowledge which we have of the enemy and his country; therefore, in fact, the foundation of all our ideas and actions.” (On War)
“It is more important to out-think your enemy than to outfight him” – Sun Tzu
“The opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” – Sun Tzu
“If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” – Sun Tzu
Clausewitz tended to be more cautious than Sun Tzu about the role of intelligence. Clausewitz understood the importance of information but was concerned about the ever present risks of deception, incorrect information, and incomplete information. Sun Tzu was an enthusiastic promoter of information (intelligence) as the very key to success in warfare. Sun Tzu argued that done properly, intelligence can allow one to win the war without direct fighting. I observe the basic truth that risk is part of life and no where is risk and success so closely joined as in warfare.
We have many examples in history how intelligence was the “reason” for victory and examples where bad intelligence was the “reason” for disaster. We noted in a previous thought that the intelligence from GRU Colonel Penkovsky enabled the US to avoid a nuclear war in the Cuban Missile Crisis and deal the Soviet Union a potent political defeat. Eli Cohen was under deep cover in Syria as an Israeli Mossad agent. Cohen provided critical information about Syrian defenses in the Golan Heights. This intelligence allowed Israel to defeat the strongly entrenched Syrian military and saved Israeli military lives in the 1967 War. Israel had good intelligence prior to the 1973 Yom Kippur War but succumbed to the Egyptian deception. In addition, Israel had insufficient intelligence on the evolution of Arab air defenses based on Soviet technology. These two factors resulted in early disasters for Israel in the 1973 War and brought Israel to the brink of being annihilated as a country and a people. Stalin ignored the intelligence that Nazi Germany had massed over 150 divisions in June 1941 to invade the Soviet Union. Timely intelligence for the GRU agent Richard Sorge helped the Soviets redeploy troops from the Far East to defeat the Nazis at the gates of Moscow and turn the tide of the war.
All this brings us full circle back to the premise that politicians make the decisions to go to war or not. These political decisions are complex and often are driven by ideology rather than cold objective reason. The key task for intelligence is to ‘live in the enemy’s mind’. I mean this in two contexts. First, understand what ‘drives’ the enemy behavior. Second, what are the potential consequences to your political decision.
Role play is a powerful tool for training intelligence operatives and analysts. For this week, I would like you to assume two different roles as you think about the following strategic challenges. Your first role is a member of the National Security council. Your second role is a General Officer and member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In each role, what advice do you give the President? (Action to take; possible consequences of the action) Treat each incident as a separate event. Did you apply a different frame of reference for each analysis or have a consistent protocol for your recommendation?
India and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons and have been enemies since the two nations were formed after WWII. They have been involved in low level conflicts and had several wars since 1947. Religious differences and geographic disputes, primarily Kashmir, are the root causes for their continuing conflict. Intelligence indicates both sides are moving into a new war and each is preparing a preemptive nuclear strike.
The Russians use a small tactical nuclear weapon to eliminate a concentration of Ukrainian forces.
Iran is on full alert and intelligence indicates they are going to launch a nuclear weapon at Tel Aviv.
You cannot offer the President platitudes. You must give the President recommended “actions”.
You have your homework assignment for the week. We would be interested in seeing your inputs to the President if you would like to share with our readers.
Originally Published 25.04.2022. Re-published with Permission from www.GaryBowser.net.
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