The New “Axis Powers” – Russia, China, Iran, North Korea

 

A World of Many Moving Parts

World War II designated the opposing sides as the Axis Powers and Allied Powers. The term Axis Powers was coined before WWII when Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy signed an agreement in 1936, the Rome-Berlin Axis. Japan formally aligned with Germany and Italy in the 1940 Tripartite Pact. From that point on they were called the Axis Powers.

After 9/11 President George W. Bush used a similar term, Axis of Evil, to call out the international threat of terrorism. President Bush included Iran, Iraq, and North Korea in the Axis of Evil.

The Thought for this week is using the concept of “Axis” as certain nations having a convergence of national interests that threaten the US. Furthermore, the historic idea of an Axis shows how events evolve in a complicated World of Many Moving Parts. An intelligence analyst cannot look at just a single event such as the Ukraine War. The Ukraine War, the Iran nuclear deal, China’s hegemonic efforts militarizing islands in the southeast Pacific, China’s economic thrust in the massive Beltway and Road Initiative are examples how events have varying degrees of linkages. The analyst needs to connect the dots to provide strategic insights how the US may be entangled in these linkages.

We were allied with Stalin, the greatest mass-murderer in history, during WWII; then became enemies of the Soviet Union during the Cold War; then Russia became a “most favored trading partner” in 2012; Russia lost most favored status in 2022 as part of US sanctions and the oblique threats of nuclear war from Russia.

The US dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese WWII enemy who is now a stanch ally of the US.

The point is clear – the world is dynamic, messy, and it is incredibly difficult for intelligence analysts to give simplistic outlooks for geostrategic problems.

We see national interests around the globe in conflict as nations choose sides, avoid choosing sides, worry about possible famine in a world food shortage, economic problems are magnified by an energy crisis in a growing inflationary spiral.

Much of what we see and hear from the press as immediate “strategies” amount to no more than political pandering through platitudes and symbolic gestures. The propaganda war from both sides is symbolic while sending additional weapons to the Ukraine stokes fighting and exacerbates the uncertainties and the risks of escalation to a nuclear war. No one, except Putin, seems to have an End Game in mind. Putin has become a prisoner of his End Game which makes him more dangerous.

A fact from history is nations will embrace transitory alliances as they pursue immediate national interests. Russia and Iran are historic enemies. Russia and China are historic enemies who have frequently implemented alliances of convenience. Is another “Axis of convenience” emerging as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea find certain advantages in cooperating to oppose the US? The US is the only country that has the potential to thwart the global and regional ambitions of China, Russia, and Iran. Europe is weak militarily, vulnerable economically, and has disparate views on individual national security matters.

The Axis concept has one more interesting aspect, history suggests the ‘Axis’ is quite brittle as the members of a given ‘Axis’ still have national interests in conflict. Italy dropped out as an Axis Power during WWII and effectively joined the allies. Iraq is no longer considered a promoter of terrorism and a threat to the countries in the region. Iraq struggles to escape the hegemonic pressure from Iran.

Though a China, Russia, Iran, North Korea Axis would have the inherent vulnerabilities of conflicting national interests, these ‘Axis’ vulnerabilities would be set aside in the short-term to present a united front against the US.

I submit that an informal “China, Russia, Iran, North Korea Axis” exists now. The probability is very low this ‘informal axis’ will ever be codified as an international treaty or agreement such as the 1940 Tripartite Pact.  The China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea relationships are fluid and opportunistic as tied to ongoing events. At the foundation of the relationships is a mutual desire to see America displaced as the major economic and military power in the world. Beyond that, the national interests of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, at best, have common benefits, but more often diverge and, in many cases conflict. For example,

• Russia, Iran, and North Korea can find mechanisms to beat international sanctions.
• Common propaganda themes provide global cover on issues.
• Iran and North Korea have shared technical information for years which enables each country to move forward as a nuclear power. North Korea has provided information and participated in the Iranian program to develop nuclear warheads. Iran has provided technical support for the development of North Korean long-range missiles.
• Russia does not want Iran to become a nuclear power with a capability to launch an intercontinental nuclear strike. Despite this, Russia aids and abets Iran against the US in the current discussion regarding Iran developing nuclear weapons. Russia sells nuclear reactors to Iran and shares nuclear technology.
• Though China and Russia have concerns about the rationality of a nuclear armed North Korea, both countries have given timely economic support ensuring the political survival of the Kim family tyrannical reign.
• Though China has an economy ranked second in the world by GDP, the Chinese economy would implode if their export trade was effectively cutoff.
• As Russia appears to struggle in an attempt to rapidly subdue the Ukraine, the parallel weaknesses of a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan become manifestly obvious.

First conclusion: the world continues as a dangerous place for America as our strategic choices are limited by realpolitik and weak leadership at the top of the US government.

Second conclusion: we could easily disrupt and damage the China, Russia, Iran, North Korea Axis by developing the US energy potential (oil, natural gas, coal) to become a one-country OPEC+.

Third conclusion: Strategically exploiting our national security imperative through becoming the energy-superpower of the world is not likely given the influence of the cult-like Green Movement in the US.

The previous Weekly Thoughts emphasized the risk of miscalculations which could lead to a nuclear war. The Ukraine War and the Iran nuclear agreement talks resonate as two events ripe for miscalculation. What is seldom mentioned is a coherent US geostrategic policy which deals with the reality of the China, Russia, Iran, North Korea Axis.

Originally Published 28.03.2022. Re-published with Permission from www.GaryBowser.net.