We Love You Old Glory!

 

14 June 2025 (President’s Trump’s birthday; the 250th Birthday of the US Army; a military parade in Washington DC)

And as a friend reminded me – National Flag Day

National Flag Day happens each year on June 14 to honor Old Glory and commemorate the adoption of the United States flag on June 14, 1777.

Old Glory is the most visible symbol for our country and our culture. There are many symbols that are part of this great nation: The Constitution; The Declaration of Independence; national buildings such as the Capital, Lincoln Memorial, Arlington Cemetery, and so on.

But, our flag is celebrated almost continuously at sports events, military funerals, public events – it is cheered, saluted, and solemnly revered.

Why is this important? For thousands of years, flags have been part of every significant culture in the history of the world. Those flags gave each of those cultures a rally point for their shared values, sense of a cohesive society, and unity of beliefs which help their society endure for generations.

I expect every one of you reading this comment respects and honors Old Glory – and many of you proudly fly our Old Glory at your home to announce I love America and love this Flag.

If anyone reading this disagrees with honoring our national symbol, that is your right. That is another symbol of our great country – freedom of speech. But - burning this revered symbol is not freedom of speech – burning our flag is called disrespect and desecration - as a citizen and veteran I assert – burning our flag should be a crime.

Celebrate tomorrow with other patriots – We love you Old Glory! 

 

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Essays written by Gary Bowser, a True Believer, sharing his thoughts regarding a wide range of topics based on his life and work experiences. Mr. Bowser is a retired military officer with over 50 years experience in the areas of intelligence and national security. He served two years in Special Operations during the Vietnam conflict. After that, he served overseas as a HUMINT Case Officer and directed a clandestine HUMINT organization as Operations Officer for over six years. Mr. Bowser also has extensive experience in the Washington D.C. arena as a DIA Directorate of Estimates Branch Chief.

You'll find more information about Gary Bowser and his books at www.garybowser.net.

 

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence analysis is the bedrock of national security. These security analyses are challenging because the collected intelligence data is never complete, contains ambiguities, often is erroneous as an intentional deception, or the various disparate pieces form a misleading direction for the analyst.

We talked about biases in intelligence analyses and the fact the intelligence analyst must understand that biases are normal and an unavoidable part of human nature. The intelligence analyst must recognize the various biases and ensure that these prejudices do not inhibit an objective analysis of an intelligence threat.

World War II offers great examples how information was manipulated to lead an enemy to draw the wrong conclusions – these wrong conclusions creating major vulnerabilities for that enemy.

There is a jargon term in the intelligence analysis community which combines many of the worst practices by analysts – “The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall Syndrome”. “The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall” trap is a self-inflected wound based on trying to please political masters, pushing for bigger defense budgets, and laziness to avoid the heavy lifting to get past biases.

“The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall Syndrome” drives the analyst to portray the enemy with capabilities that in fact exceed the reality of the enemy threat.

I argue that the current threats to the USA from Russia and China are classic perversions of “The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall Syndrome”. The current threats to the USA from Russia and China are real and serious – but the threats from both countries are not on the order you hear in the various media. The Russia nuclear arsenal is a grave strategic threat. Our strategic nuclear forces far outclass the Russian – and why would Russia risk nuclear annihilation for a few more square miles of Ukraine. Think about the facts – Russia has been trying to conquer the Ukraine for over three years – and failed miserably with butcher’s bill of some 900,000 dead Russian soldiers for minor territorial gains. China has so many problems they offer little or no threat to mainland US and, in my view, could not conduct an effective amphibious assault on Taiwan.

I expect many of you may disagree with my assertions and analysis. If so let me know. I am planning follow-up comments regarding the Ukraine War and President Trump’s understanding of the existing weaknesses of Russia and the Ukraine which will lead to a ceasefire and peace. After that, we can talk about the Chinese fortune cookie threat.

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Essays written by Gary Bowser, a True Believer, sharing his thoughts regarding a wide range of topics based on his life and work experiences. Mr. Bowser is a retired military officer with over 50 years experience in the areas of intelligence and national security. He served two years in Special Operations during the Vietnam conflict. After that, he served overseas as a HUMINT Case Officer and directed a clandestine HUMINT organization as Operations Officer for over six years. Mr. Bowser also has extensive experience in the Washington D.C. arena as a DIA Directorate of Estimates Branch Chief.

You'll find more information about Gary Bowser and his books at www.garybowser.net.

 

LIES ARE TRUTH, Book 3

 

LIES ARE TRUTH, Book 3

Team Peregrine conducted a Top Secret Black operation to protect the United States from a Russian strategic nuclear attack during the Cold War, 1945-1991. The US and USSR could execute strategic attacks with a 'push of a button'. Missiles launched at targets thousands of miles distant delivered nuclear warheads on enemy targets 30 minutes later. The US and the USSR both faced a nuclear apocalypse as each superpower had the capability to annihilate the other as a country and do so in minutes. This horrifying specter of destruction was codified by the term Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). The US and USSR were both restrained from launching a first attack by the ability of the enemy to launch a counterstrike. The MAD concept was well known by everyone in the US as an ominous threat to our survival as a nation. 

Author Gary Bowser pulls from his years of experience running spies as a Case Officer and director of a clandestine organization to write these action-packed thrillers.

The first Superpower to develop an effective defense system against intercontinental nuclear-warhead tipped missiles would radically alter the MAD balance and dominate the world. The US and Soviet Union were locked in a deadly, highly classified 'secret intelligence war' to find cracks in each other's strategic armor.

Team Peregrine was an elite group of Special Operations counterintelligence personnel and US Air Force Foreign Technology Division Det 3 case officers. These case officers were experts in various high-tech domains. The Det 3 case officers ran spies against the Soviet research program to build a missile defense system. Team Peregrine engaged the KGB at every step to stop the Soviets from building a missile defense system which would give the Communists the leverage to dominate the world.

Even today, much of what happened in that "intelligence war" remains classified. However, with the passage of time, some of the curtain can be pulled back to reveal one of the reasons the US won the Cold War. The Team Peregrine series of books gives a peek behind the curtain about a small group of US military and intelligence warriors who helped the US win the Cold War "intelligence war".

September 19, 2024 LIES ARE TRUTH, book 3 of the Team Peregrine series was published.  Specifically, LIES ARE TRUTH is depicted during the Cold War, the US feared a nuclear apocalypse and a world dominated by the Soviet Union. A group of American spies in Wiesbaden Germany had the mission to stop the Soviets from developing a new weapon to destroy the United States. A fierce intelligence war ensued between the KGB and the US spies in Wiesbaden to decide which nation would win the Cold War. KGB Colonel Rostov, the top KGB assassin, was ordered to kill Commander Gary Baumgartner and his wife Annie who were directing the spy operation in Wiesbaden. Survival of the US hung in the balance. (2024)

 All three of these books are available on Amazon. 

Knowledge Holds the National House Together

Intelligence Is The Source for That Knowledge

During recent weeks we talked about national strategy, national interests, realpolitik, belief systems, and spies who changed history. Knowledge is based on collecting information, then analyzing the information to give meaning a context. This week I want to take a look at how some of this information is gathered at the basic human level, in this case I mean theft.

We are all tuned to the current microchip crisis which has forced some industries to temporarily suspend production. Back in the early days of microelectronics, this technology was emerging as a strategic factor for national defenses. So back to those early days, what was the Soviet state of art in military microelectronics?

Thus, this week, our Thought is on the light-side – back in the field days of beating the Ruskies out of S&T information, and in this instance, physical stuff.

Dancing Shoes and Light Fingers

The intelligence community has terms used by insiders as they practice their craft. There are a bunch of ‘official’ and private ‘intelligence dictionaries’ dedicated to intelligence terminology. In Foreign Technology Division Det 3 in Germany, we frequently used and loved the term “dancing shoes”. The term “dancing shoes” means, ‘being able to talk one’s way out of trouble’. And we did ‘some dancing’ over the years. For us, the “dancing shoes”  act was  used as part of the tradecraft needed to conduct an operation. I think “light fingers” is self-explanatory as in surreptitious theft.

The Soviets had major weaknesses in their production phase for computer hardware and microelectronics. Given the low performance of the early Soviet computer designs, the Soviets decided “to borrow” US computer designs. For example, the Ryad series of Soviet computers was an exact copy of the IBM-360/370 and the East German VEB Robotron K 1840 (SM 1710) was a copy of the US VAX-11/780 computer.

One element which played across Soviet development efforts was an endemic problem of poor quality manufactured electronic components, in particular, microelectronics. Many of their microelectronic designs were relatively advanced but the Soviet electronics production capabilities did not support a high-quantity output for these designs.

The USAF Foreign Technology Division (FTD) had a priority intelligence requirement for detailed information on Soviet microcircuits. There was virtually no accessible data, documents, or hardware for this critical Soviet technical discipline available to anyone in the West. We in Det 3 needed to find a creative way to satisfy the priority collect requirement for information on the soviet microelectronics capabilities.

One of our Det 3 agents reported to his case officer that the Soviets were on a list of exhibitors at a major electronics fair in London. Though the source did not have detailed information about the Soviet booth display, we jumped on this potential access to “something”. D.S. (one of my case officers) and I grabbed our spy costumes, three piece suits with shirts and ties, and planned our cover story as journalists writing an article on the London electronics fair. Then, off to London for some fish and chips, warm beer, and a bit of spy work.

True to form, the lure of western luxuries dominated over the usual suffocating security procedures. D.S. and I were ready to tag-team the single rep. We had determined in our recon that most of the circuits were rather mundane, but still of interest. The real prize was four microcircuits on a separate table, which, on the previous day, we heard the rep touting as advanced designs.

We carried the ubiquitous plastic bags seen at every exhibition for collection of exhibitor product literature. We had divided the booth into two areas for efficient collection of the tech data sheets and brochures and set about that task as soon as we arrived at the booth. Only one Soviet tech rep was present. He became alarmed when he saw us effectively vacuuming up one copy of every technical document for our plastic bags.

We introduced ourselves using the journalist cover, providing business cards, and congratulated the tech rep on the professional presentation of his booth.

We pre-planned D.S. would handle the “dancing shoes” task. He told the tech rep that he would like to interview him for the article. The tech rep stated flatly, interviews were prohibited. D.S. countered that he would pay $100 for the interview ($100 was a lot of money in those days). Showing an unusual flexibility for a typical commie functionary, he now agreed to the interview as a special case. The booth had a small curtained-off area at the back for private discussions. The tech rep led D.S. behind the curtain and D.S. proceeded to schmooze and distract the tech rep.

I was “light fingers”. I grabbed the four small boxes with the ‘advanced designs’ and stuffed them in my plastic bag. Taking four of the antiquated display items, I positioned them to hopefully disguise the pilfering – ok, stealing for national security. The packaging was different, so the swap would be easily discovered in due course.

I did my ‘get out of Dodge’ move as D.S. wrapped up the “interview” and paid the tech rep $100 US dollars before he also left the crime scene.

That evening we celebrated with a couple glasses of single malt and mused – with the $100, the tech rep could buy some nice warm clothing for his trip to the gulag.

FTD analysts were delighted with the tech literature and particularly pleased to have the four ‘advanced’ devices for FME (foreign material exploitation)

The Soviets were there with some microelectronic goodies, actually a potential treasure trove: brochures, tech data sheets, and the gold of the treasure – microelectronics hardware in little plastic display boxes. We did a recon the first day. Three reps, we identified one as the KGB ‘watcher’ along with two tech guys manning the booth.

We had a common Soviet behavior working in our favor. When in the West, the Russians would try to buy as many western goods as they could carry, things we took for granted in many cases but not available in the Workers’ Paradise. The KGB guy absented himself for a shopping spree which we hoped would last thru the next day. The two tech reps appeared to split their time to allow ‘shopping time’ for each. Our plan was to hit the booth the next morning as soon as the KGB guy and one of the tech reps departed for “shopping sprees”.

It was a good day ‘out of the office’.

Originally Published 15.04.2022. Re-published with Permission from www.GaryBowser.net.

Intelligence and Polities, Knowledge is Power

When I began the website initiative, Thought for the Week, I intended to avoid the trap of falling into a purely political discussion. This site is about intelligence. My books are telling about intelligence in the real world. (I intend to talk more next month about the ‘why’ I began a series of books which I refer to as the True Believer series.) I realized that I was out of step with two of the greatest thinkers in history who wrote about war, General Karl von Clausewitz and General Sun Tzu.

The reality is – Intelligence is part of the DNA of politics and Intelligence is the essence of success in war.

Clausewitz, “war is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out of the same by other means,” (On War)

“By the word “information” we denote all the knowledge which we have of the enemy and his country; therefore, in fact, the foundation of all our ideas and actions.” (On War)

“It is more important to out-think your enemy than to outfight him” – Sun Tzu

“The opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” – Sun Tzu

“If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” – Sun Tzu

Clausewitz tended to be more cautious than Sun Tzu about the role of intelligence. Clausewitz understood the importance of information but was concerned about the ever present risks of deception, incorrect information, and incomplete information. Sun Tzu was an enthusiastic promoter of information (intelligence) as the very key to success in warfare. Sun Tzu argued that done properly, intelligence can allow one to win the war without direct fighting. I observe the basic truth that risk is part of life and no where is risk and success so closely joined as in warfare.

We have many examples in history how intelligence was the “reason” for victory and examples where bad intelligence was the “reason” for disaster. We noted in a previous thought that the intelligence from GRU Colonel Penkovsky enabled the US to avoid a nuclear war in the Cuban Missile Crisis and deal the Soviet Union a potent political defeat. Eli Cohen was under deep cover in Syria as an Israeli Mossad agent. Cohen provided critical information about Syrian defenses in the Golan Heights. This intelligence allowed Israel to defeat the strongly entrenched Syrian military and saved Israeli military lives in the 1967 War. Israel had good intelligence prior to the 1973 Yom Kippur War but succumbed to the Egyptian deception. In addition, Israel had insufficient intelligence on the evolution of Arab air defenses based on Soviet technology. These two factors resulted in early disasters for Israel in the 1973 War and brought Israel to the brink of being annihilated as a country and a people. Stalin ignored the intelligence that Nazi Germany had massed over 150 divisions in June 1941 to invade the Soviet Union. Timely intelligence for the GRU agent Richard Sorge helped the Soviets redeploy troops from the Far East to defeat the Nazis at the gates of Moscow and turn the tide of the war.

All this brings us full circle back to the premise that politicians make the decisions to go to war or not. These political decisions are complex and often are driven by ideology rather than cold objective reason. The key task for intelligence is to ‘live in the enemy’s mind’. I mean this in two contexts. First, understand what ‘drives’ the enemy behavior. Second, what are the potential consequences to your political decision.

Role play is a powerful tool for training intelligence operatives and analysts. For this week, I would like you to assume two different roles as you think about the following strategic challenges. Your first role is a member of the National Security council. Your second role is a General Officer and member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In each role, what advice do you give the President? (Action to take; possible consequences of the action) Treat each incident as a separate event. Did you apply a different frame of reference for each analysis or have a consistent protocol for your recommendation?

India and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons and have been enemies since the two nations were formed after WWII. They have been involved in low level conflicts and had several wars since 1947. Religious differences and geographic disputes, primarily Kashmir, are the root causes for their continuing conflict. Intelligence indicates both sides are moving into a new war and each is preparing a preemptive nuclear strike.

The Russians use a small tactical nuclear weapon to eliminate a concentration of Ukrainian forces.

Iran is on full alert and intelligence indicates they are going to launch a nuclear weapon at Tel Aviv.

You cannot offer the President platitudes. You must give the President recommended “actions”.

You have your homework assignment for the week. We would be interested in seeing your inputs to the President if you would like to share with our readers.

Originally Published 25.04.2022. Re-published with Permission from www.GaryBowser.net.

LIFE Should Be a Continuous Learning Experience

 

We are in the third week of the new initiative to share perceptions and ideas on current events of critical importance to the security of our country. I reflected on the reason I started the Thought for the Week. My intent was to challenge each of you to think “critically” about these events. I mean for you to not think as a “critic’, but think as an analyst. I do not hold with critics who only find fault and offer nothing positive. Teddy Roosevelt eloquently provided me with a perspective of ‘the critic’:

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”

Theodore Roosevelt

The strategic analyst must think in terms of “realpolitik”, that is, the environment of events.

Realpolitik – a system of politics or principles based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations.

The idea of subjugating moral considerations may be repugnant to some readers. However, we live in a harsh world where the moral principles vary from person to person and country to country. The analyst has to think with his or her mind, not the heart. An arduous task as each of us has internal biases and core beliefs. The analyst has to be objective, systematic, and keep emotions out of the analytic process. The analyst deals with incomplete information, information that may be inaccurate, or even designed to be deceptive. The analyst mission is to give the most accurate understanding of the issue, not one which fits a ‘narrative’ or politically convenient answer. Good analysts are seldom popular. So, my challenge to you, put on your analyst hat each week and delve deeply into the issue for that week. Think within a framework that requires intellectual discipline. This may give you conclusions which surprise you, or maybe not.

The theme for this week is about war and policy and decisions.

“Lesson learned” is a process for the military to prepare for the ‘next war’ by studying the past.

But – learning the “correct lessons” has not been easy based on the history of warfare.

Moreover, the focus on war often omits how a war actually happens. Politicians make the decisions to engage in war. The military fights the war that the politicians begin. Of course, the military and the intelligence community have significant inputs to the politicians making the decision to go to war. In the evolving events in and around the Ukraine today, Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden will make decisions which will direct the evolution of the fighting and history. Of paramount importance, Putin has a finger on the trigger to launch Russian nuclear weapons. As a ‘good analyst’ you must also note, Joe Biden has a finger on the trigger to launch American nuclear weapons. The ongoing war in the Ukraine presents the possibility that a miscalculation by one of the many involved parties could lead to a catastrophic nuclear war.

Have the politicians on both sides learned the “correct lessons”?

History suggests they have not.

We nearly stumbled into a nuclear war with the Soviet Union on three occasions during the Cold War.

The politicians failed our country miserably in the Vietnam War and again in Afghanistan.

US missile deployments in Europe during the early 1960s led the Soviets to take a risky gamble to deploy nuclear weapon-capable missiles in Cuba. The result was, two nations looked into the nuclear abyss of mutual annihilation. A US military exercise in the 1980s, Able Archer, was misinterpreted by Soviet intelligence as US preparations to launch a nuclear first strike on the Soviet Union. Miscalculations that bought the opposing nuclear forces to launch readiness, waiting for the coded message to fire their missiles.

We gradually morphed into the Vietnam War starting with our support of the French in the 1950s and then fearing the ‘domino effect’ of a communist takeover of Southeast Asia. The politicians made two monumental errors, underestimating our foe and no “end game’ for the conflict. Foremost, we failed to head the admonition of the strategic thinker, Carl von Clausewitz, who wrote this maxim:

“War is a trial of moral and physical forces by means of the latter. . . In the last analysis it is at moral, not physical strength that all military action is directed … Moral factors, then, are the ultimate determinants in war.”                                         

We failed to understand that North Vietnamese were fighting for their core belief of Vietnamese nationalism, though the historic evidence was there going back to the 1920s. We did not perceive the North Vietnamese would be totally resolute and committed to their cause. Beyond that, we had no ‘end game’ for the conflict except to escalate the fighting with more troops and weapons. 

In Afghanistan, we repeated the Vietnam debacle with minor variations. We had no ‘end game’, and it took us 20 years to figure that out. Our opponents were fighting for their religious and nationalistic beliefs.

In both examples our military fought valiantly and served with honor. If it appears that I have been harsh with politicians, you broke the code. My military bias is showing. Politicians talk, the military die.

The Ukraine conflict has brought us to another strategic crossroads – how do we avoid the miscalculation which leads the conflict to the point where we and the Russians will use nuclear weapons. A conflict where both sides become inevitable losers.

The White House appears to have no ‘end game’.

Please tune-in next week as the ‘lessons learned’ theme goes on looking back (1973 Yom Kippur War), examining where we are now in the geostrategic sphere, and for the future, what seems to be the strategic trajectory – toward an unpredictable war or to an unstable peace.

 

Originally Published 18.03.2022. Re-published with Permission from www.GaryBowser.net.

AI – An Existential Threat to Freedom

 

AI is one of the ‘hot topics’ in contemporary news. 

I assert that one word tells you all you really need to know about AI. That word is- “ARTIFICIAL”

A background thought – would you rather have “actual intelligence” or “artificial intelligence” as the basis to make your life decisions?A second background thought – AI is just complex SOFTWARE created by people who have biases and happen to write software. Stuff like WORD, WINDOWS, internet search algorithms.

You and I are inundated daily by information. Information that may be true or may not be true. And this is where the problem exists. The “not true” may be reported in error or it can be presented for a malicious purpose. Political and ideological opponents shout that the ‘other side’ is presenting “fake news’ or “misinformation”.

This “truth” challenge is the greatest and most enduring problem faced over the history of mankind. 

You and I are ‘who we are’ because of our personal beliefs – moral, ethical, religious, and yes, political. Our institutions are derived from the dominating belief systems from their communities and nations.

Rush Limbaugh stated it as – “the war of ideas”.

Joseph Goebbels, an icon of evil, the Nazi Propaganda Minister would embrace AI as the greatest tool to achieve totalitarianism. Among his many quotes we find: 

“If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it, and you will even come to believe it yourself.”

“A lie told once remains a lie but a lie told a thousand times becomes the truth.” 

“It is the absolute right of the State to supervise the formation of public opinion.”

"The essence of propaganda consists in winning people over to an idea so sincerely, so vitally, that in the end they succumb to it utterly and can never escape from it." 

"We shall reach our goal, when we have the power to laugh as we destroy, as we smash, whatever was sacred to us as tradition, as education, and as human affection." 

Do these quotes resonate with the cacophony of noise we read and hear every day?
Social media is shaping our next generation. AI can deliver messages from the Goebbels’ playbook to teens and us older folks – everyone. 

Who controls and manipulates the “beliefs” wins.

AI is a con job like Climate Change but much more insidious.

So what is my point in this AI observation, which should have been about selling my books, rather than a ramble on how fragile our freedom is when threatened by bad people using AI outputs?

My point is simple – be informed, be vigilant as to reality, think, and make up your mind – you are the custodian of your beliefs.

And by the way, buy the Cold War thriller, Not On My Watch- Nuclear Apocalypse – a fun read and some important history “truths” you did not know.

More later on the dangers of AI

Supplemental reading, Who's in Charge Here? by Ed D'Agostino.