Intelligence analysis is the bedrock of national security. These security analyses are challenging because the collected intelligence data is never complete, contains ambiguities, often is erroneous as an intentional deception, or the various disparate pieces form a misleading direction for the analyst.
We talked about biases in intelligence analyses and the fact the intelligence analyst must understand that biases are normal and an unavoidable part of human nature. The intelligence analyst must recognize the various biases and ensure that these prejudices do not inhibit an objective analysis of an intelligence threat.
World War II offers great examples how information was manipulated to lead an enemy to draw the wrong conclusions – these wrong conclusions creating major vulnerabilities for that enemy.
There is a jargon term in the intelligence analysis community which combines many of the worst practices by analysts – “The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall Syndrome”. “The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall” trap is a self-inflected wound based on trying to please political masters, pushing for bigger defense budgets, and laziness to avoid the heavy lifting to get past biases.
“The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall Syndrome” drives the analyst to portray the enemy with capabilities that in fact exceed the reality of the enemy threat.
I argue that the current threats to the USA from Russia and China are classic perversions of “The Enemy Is Ten Feet Tall Syndrome”. The current threats to the USA from Russia and China are real and serious – but the threats from both countries are not on the order you hear in the various media. The Russia nuclear arsenal is a grave strategic threat. Our strategic nuclear forces far outclass the Russian – and why would Russia risk nuclear annihilation for a few more square miles of Ukraine. Think about the facts – Russia has been trying to conquer the Ukraine for over three years – and failed miserably with butcher’s bill of some 900,000 dead Russian soldiers for minor territorial gains. China has so many problems they offer little or no threat to mainland US and, in my view, could not conduct an effective amphibious assault on Taiwan.
I expect many of you may disagree with my assertions and analysis. If so let me know. I am planning follow-up comments regarding the Ukraine War and President Trump’s understanding of the existing weaknesses of Russia and the Ukraine which will lead to a ceasefire and peace. After that, we can talk about the Chinese fortune cookie threat.
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Essays written by Gary Bowser, a True Believer, sharing his thoughts regarding a wide range of topics based on his life and work experiences. Mr. Bowser is a retired military officer with over 50 years experience in the areas of intelligence and national security. He served two years in Special Operations during the Vietnam conflict. After that, he served overseas as a HUMINT Case Officer and directed a clandestine HUMINT organization as Operations Officer for over six years. Mr. Bowser also has extensive experience in the Washington D.C. arena as a DIA Directorate of Estimates Branch Chief.
You'll find more information about Gary Bowser and his books at www.garybowser.net.
